Tuesday, December 30, 2008

2009 Forecast

Okay, I'm going to step way out on a limb here and gaze into my cloudy and snow covered crystal ball and make some predictions for the coming year:
  1. Energy costs - they have nowhere to go but up. Kiss the buck and a half a gallon gas goodbye, you'll never see it in your lifetime again. Oh, we may have a couple more dips down to this level in the coming months but check back at the end of the year and let me know what you are paying then.
  2. Inflation - well, the current trend is that we are in a pretty strong deflation. The prices of almost everything have dropped this year. But the truth of the matter is that the U.S. government can not operate in a deflationary environment. I mean, holy crap, how can Uncle Sam pay off a $10 trillion deficit with dollars that are actually worth more? Besides, they are now throwing trillions of dollars more to buy out anything that is deemed "too big to fail". Who says the Federal government is not too big to fail? I see us back to double digit inflation by the end of next year. If you own any government bonds or T-bills now is the time to sell.
  3. Unemployment - we haven't even come close to the bottom yet with maybe even double digit numbers the U.S. by the end of the year.
  4. Real estate - yep, still a long way to go on this one as well - probably another 20 to 30 per cent reduction from here.
  5. Food - the prices will go up and the availability will go down. There will be more cases of tainted produce as more corners are cut. If you don't have a garden yet, this summer would be a great time to start and organic is the only way to go.
  6. Crime - 2008 saw crime generally decrease across the U.S. but I think this is turning around as we draw to the end of the year. Look for much higher burglary, robbery and home invasion rates next year. If you do not have a gun safe this would be a good time to purchase one and trade in some of those soon to be worthless FRN's.
  7. Stimulus checks - Oh boy, this will cause a real firestorm. According to my copy of Turbotax, the $1,200 "stimulus check" that I got last year is now causing my 2008 income tax to be $1,200 more than if I had not received it. What this means if Turbotax is correct (and I have not been able to refute it yet) is that Uncle Scrooge did nothing more that give us an interest free cash advance that it now wants back!!
Yes, that's a lot of gloom and doom for 2009. My mantra is the 3 G's - "gold, guns and gardens".
I believe that once we flush the poison from the system that the medium term future looks pretty darn promising. I look for techology to make some significant advances in the next few years to start to turn things around.

Happy New Year!

Friday, December 5, 2008

Book Review - Gun Digest Book of Concealed Carry



I highly recommend this book for anyone who carries a gun. It is written by Massad Ayoob who is one of the top trainers and gun writers around. I have taken his LFI-1 and LFI-2 courses (both are 40 hour classes) and I admit that his philosophy has molded a good portion of my thinking on this subject.

I certainly don't agree with him on everything (for example, he recommends the heavy "New York" triggers on Glocks and I don't) but I guarantee you'll learn something from this book. Also, I don't think we need to wade through 30 cases to prove that ball ammo overpenetrates.

His treatment of the whole issue of carry holsters is by far the best available. And his section on open carry is certainly one of the more fair looks at this very sensitive topic. There have been many changes in guns, holsters and ammo during the last few years and Mas does a good job of reviewing all of these.

For the cost of a box of ammo these days, this book is a real bargain. Don't pay $24.99 though, click on the picture and order it from Amazon.

Monday, December 1, 2008

BHO administration

Many people are concerned that the Barack Hussein Obama (BHO from now on since I really don't want to even type his name) administration is going to be very anti-gun. I don't know if it will happen or not, but the reality is that today the perception is that it will happen.

My CPL classes are running about triple the rate of a normal year the last couple of months and most "assault" type of guns and standard capacity magazines have just about doubled in price. Most common pistol and rifle ammo is very difficult to find.

OK, so what is my prediction? First off, the personnel form that all BHO appointees must fill out has a question (number 59 out of 63) that asks if they or anyone in their immediate family owns a firearm - (see http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15835.htm for more info ).
This tells me that he is very concerned about guns despite all his rhetoric about believing in second amendment rights. And he has gone on record that he is in favor of the assault weapon and high cap magazine ban that was on the books during the Clinton administration. However this requires an act of Congress so it probably wouldn't happen during 2009 - especially since he has a whole plate of much more serious issues to deal with.

But, he has quite a bit of lattitude in regards to Executive Orders. I do think their will be a flurry of these soon after he takes office with most of them concerning importation of guns, parts and ammo. My recommendation is that if you have any interest in foreign made guns, magazines or ammo - you need to have these in your possession by January 20th. I'm thinking that anything AK-47 related will be hit hard. Also, things like Glock magazines (made in Austria), anything for the FN-FAL and foreign surplus ammo will dry up as well.

The good news is that we learned a lesson the last time and many of you have stocked up already. I'm guessing that there are literally tens of millions more standard capacity Glock magazines in the hands of Americans than during ban years. I would like to personally thank the BHO crowd for perhaps arming more good old red blooded American patriots than the whole Bush regime.